Module 2 (months 0-10) has launched the research and is developing the historical and international comparative dimension of the work by focussing on the DED outbreak and assessing its relevance to SOD and other contemporary tree disease events. Forest Research has had an active research programme relating to DED since the initial outbreak in 1969 and a great deal of data and expertise has been accumulated which is being made available to the project.  Following an initial period of archival research and literature review, we have to date conducted a series of semi-structured interviews with a range of Forestry Commission officers, pathologists and local authority tree officers involved in monitoring and reporting on the outbreak.

Module 3 (months 2-18) integrates this background analysis of DED and SOD with an understanding of the biology and pathology of the disease systems concerned in order to map the rate and extent of spread for England (and Wales) on a 1 km grid. The majority of this work will be conducted within a bespoke spatial modelling environment with the objective of describing/predicting the incidence of the two diseases and their actual (DED) or likely (SOD) rate of spread.

The first model run has produced baseline maps showing cumulative impact and cumulative risk assuming no human intervention to contain or manage the disease. We are currently working on a second set of model runs which aim to build in assumptions and demonstrate the likely consequences of range of possible actions that could have been taken by government and various stakeholders in relation to DED or might future be taken to manage the risk due to SOD. Using outputs from this work, we are currently identifying up to 4 study sites within which to develop visualisations of the actual or likely landscape impacts of these DED and SOD scenarios. These visualisations will be form the basis for the economic valuation stage of the work; 

Module 4 (months 10-18) comprises the economic estimation and evaluation component of the project, designed to quantify the potential non-market benefits that accrue when tree disease epidemics are prevented or brought under control. Using a stated preference approach, we will be delivering a pre-tested questionnaire to up to 2000 randomly selected individuals resident in the study areas in order to explore what people are willing to pay for measures designed to compensate for the landscape impact of DED or to prevent the predicted loss of landscape quality and visual amenity that might be expected to follow a major outbreak of SOD. 

Module 5 (months 18-26) will draw this sequence of ex post and ex ante analyses of the biology, landscape impact and cost benefit implications together to explore the policy learning and contingency planning implications of the work. Rather than convening focus groups at this point, however, we wish to use more innovative participatory methods in order to bring policymakers, stakeholders and the researchers on the project together to reflect on the experience of an historical event and to identify lessons for the future. 

We will be convening a two day jury-style enquiry into DED and the biosecurity issues surrounding SOD which will be designed to receive evidence based on the research findings and then to reach a series of 'verdicts' concerning

(a) the management of the DED outbreak and the lessons that can be learned in terms of quarantine measures, monitoring, early warning, risk communication and subsequent management of the disease outbreak, and 

(b) the extent and manageability of the risk posed to landscape and biodiversity in the UK from SOD and other tree diseases.